Historical Tote Data
ToteBetter team been involved in racing for a long time. We have developed software for many of Australia's largest punters. The methods of ToteBetter clients are closely guarded and not available to the public, however over the years ToteBetter has undertaken ground breaking analyses of tote data.
Currently, ToteBetter cannot provide any access to raw past Tote data.
For the first time we can provide customised reports based upon client needs. By far our most popular analysis is our Historical Exotic Dividend predictor. Over the past year we have analysed every dividend for Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta and First4, by race type and by tote. We have undertaken an analysis of what the mathematical models predicted each tote SHOULD pay based upon the win prices and compared them to what they DID pay.
We modelled the data and arrived at the most accurate predictions available to Australian punters today. The predictions are based upon what totes actually have historically paid for corresponding theoretical prediction.
For example, considering all past Greyhound races going back until 2008, for races with 8 runners, here are the figures for Supertab Quinellas where the mathematical “should pay” based upon the win prices for the runners that ran first and second:
What this is telling us is that for races in this category, at the historically all three totes are historically pay over the $16 theoretical dividend in every category. Of course, this is not the case at all price points, there is a trend line at which the actual pays stop exceeding or even reaching the theoretical dividend. That is the heart of this analysis knowing where the value is and where the historical dividends do not meet the “should pays”.
How do you go about using this information in your own betting applications? In the past, many punters developed betting methods as described by Don Scott in his popular “Winning More” series. Essentially, his concept is “betting to prices” expanded from Win Betting to Exotics betting, however using the theoretical formula for comparison at 100%. This does not take into account the Tote Takeout for the different bet types, nor consider the “real world” issues where animals do not conform to mathematical norms.
Using the Don Scott example above, your software would calculate the mathematical projection for all runners in your race, and when you need to compare “your price” against the projected Tote price, your system checks the ToteBetter Dividend predictor price at each price point, and place bets where the predicted price exceeds your own price.
In most cases, particularly at the higher prices points, the comparison is not simply looking up a table. Predictions against past data have been made using regression modelling and at lower ranges the correlation between should pay and actual exceeds 90%, as the predicted price increases so there is a corresponding reduction in the R squared factor.
Contact the ToteBetter support team for a costing of this service.
Any analysis you can imagine can be undertaken by the ToteBetter team:
- What percentage of Horse races have been won by $2 chances?
- How often do favourites win in 6 dog races at the Greyhounds on Heavy tracks?
- In Harness racing what tracks have the poorest favourite strike rate?
- What is the comparative difference in Trifecta dividends across the three totes?
The analyses we can perform are only limited by your imagination, and are fully customised to meet your needs. As such the cost of each analysis is dependant on the work involved in creating the report. The minimum cost for each analysis is $50.
We can provide the result of the analysis to you in a wide range of soft or hard formats.